Le déficit dans les projections pour la production du pétrole d’ici 2030

Tainter et Patzek (2012) Fig.3.9 According to the International Energy Agencu (IEA), there is a peak of produced oil and 50 million barrels of conventional oil per day (mb/d) will be missing by 2030. IEA promises to fill this gap with new discoveries, further development of existing fields, enhanced oil recoevery (EOR), such as CO2 or steam injection, and a further increase of production from the Canadian tar sands. All these alternatives to conventional oil will alleviate the shortages somewhat, but their aggregate cannot possibly make up for the declining oil production in the existing fields. Note that natural gas liquids (NGL) cannot power a majority of the cars currently on the road, and will not play a major role globally as a source of liquid transportation fuels, unless there is a massive conversion of gasoline-burning engines to NGL-burning ones. As shown in Fig. 3.10 [l’autre graphique dans l’article], all EOR projects in the world currently deliver only 2.5 million barrels of oil per day, and the Canadian tar sands deliver 1.5 millions barrels per day of synthetic crude oil and bitumen. (source : www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop_weosideeven.pdf)

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